Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Predictions...

Well, the big question here in Montgomeryshire - who will be the next MP. To an outside observer, it seems crazy that the question is even being asked given the long Liberal tradition here plus Lembit's impressive majority in the last election. But the result is very much up in the air, mainly because of Lembit's 'interesting' approach to politics and the promotion of his personal life over the past few years. Glyn Davies, the Conservative candidate, has campaigned for years since losing his Assembly seat and has undoubtedly given the campaign his all. But has he done enough? And has the recent 'Cleggmania' scuppered his chances?

As for me, my aim at the start was to increase the Plaid Cymru vote and offer people an alternative. I knew how difficult it would be to jump from a poor fourth to first, but I have tried my very best to fight an energetic campaign and fight for as many votes as possible. From the reception I've received, I know people support Plaid and our policies here but the one thing holding them back from voting is that they're scared that a vote for me would be a wasted vote. Interestingly, its the non Welsh speakers or the people who've moved into the area that have been the most receptive. All I can do tonight is hope that my message that Plaid has a real chance here has reached enough people, and that they'll decide it is worth giving me a chance.

It's impossible to predict what will happen, but here's three possible scenarios that I think might happen tomorrow night:

1) Worst case scenario: Plaid's vote here stays the same or collapses due to Plaid Cymru being left out of leaders debate, Lembit holds on to his seat but with a smaller majority, finishing about 1500-2000 votes ahead of Glyn.

2) Middle of the road scenario: Lembit/ Glyn both end up with approx 11,000 votes and a few hundred votes decide the winner. Plaid rises up to third place, with a respective performance gaining at least 10% of the vote. UKIP finishes fourth, and Labour fall to fifth place.

3) Ideal scenario!: Lembit's vote falls to approx 9000. Glyn goes up to approx 9000, having lost votes to UKIP, who poll approx 4000 votes. Plaid steals 4000 of Lembit's votes, plus 2000 from Labour and go up to approx 9000 as well. Resulting in a three horse race, with a few hundred votes deciding the result! And me emerging as the shock winner!

Whatever happens, I know that there's nothing more my team and I could have done. We've really gone for it in terms of the campaign, and targeted those who feel disillusioned with the three London parties. Montgomeryshire is a winnable seat for Plaid, and if it doesn't happen this time, then I'm certain it will happen in the near future. Montgomeryshire needs and wants a change. Let's hope for the voters sake that they get one tomorrow night....

2 comments:

CC said...

sounds like you've run a brilliant campaign. it makes me so happy to see young bright ambitious women standing for parliament. all the best and best of luck today.

Glyn Davies said...

Chwarau teg Heledd. You have done a great job. I like your style. Its straight and honest. Its the way I try to be myself. Makes such a change from the boastfulness and claiming credit for other's efforts that we have become used to in Montgomeryshire. You deserve to do well - but not that well!